Micro Model Simulation Tools for Performance-based Design of a Flood Risk Management System

概要

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Two types of micro simulation tools for the performance-based design of a flood risk management system have been developed; a micro model-based simulation system of flood evacuation, and an object-oriented simulation model of communication processes among disaster prevention agencies. The micro simulation model of flood evacuation is based on parameterization of people's attitudes to flood risk and recognition of danger during flooding. The relationship of the information issued, changing conditions during floods and people's action is expressed in fuzzy inference rules. Parameterization of these mental factors enabled us to simulate the independent evacuation of people based on no information from authorities and the neglect of official information. Using a communication process simulator, disaster prevention agencies were modeled as objects which have action rule sets as described in local disaster preparedness plans. Through simulation of communication processes during a flood disaster, concentration of the path of information and unbalanced element task descriptions can be expressed quantitatively.
日本自然災害学会の論文