Outline of Health Effects of Global Climate Change

概要

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Human activities, such as combustion of fossil fuels, agricultural activities and changes in land- use, are responsible for global climate change. Because of the rapid increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), climate models predict an increase in global surface temperatures of 1.0°C to 3.5°C by the year 2100. Using general circulation models, it is estimated that surface temperatures in and around Japan will rise 1°C to 3°C during the next 100 years. Because global warming may increase the frequency and length of high temperatures during hot summer months in temperate regions, various health risks caused by heat stress have been studied. According to an epidemiological survey, the incidence of heat-related illness was significantly correlated to hot environments in Tokyo, Japan and in Nanjing and Wuhan, China. The epidemiological results showed that the incidence of heat related mortality and morbidity, such as heat stroke in the elderly, increased very rapidly when daily maximum temperatures in summer months rose above 31°C in Tokyo and 35°C in Nanjing and Wuhan, respectively. J Epidemiol, 1996 ; 6 : S141-S144.
日本疫学会の論文