1990年代のベースメタルの生産量と価格の分析について

概要

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In this paper, productions and prices of metals in 1990s were analyzed. Six metals, aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc, were analyzed. The production levels of these metals were almost flat until 1995 and increased after that. The price levels declined until 1993 and climbed during 1994-96. However, the price levels sharply dropped during 1997-98 due to the international currency crisis. After 1999, the price levels were in rising trends corresponding to the recovery of the world economy.The relationships among the productions, prices and the world GDP were analyzed using the regression models. The findings of the paper were as follows.i) Except tin, the production levels were explained by the prices level of 2 years ago. If the prices were higher than the trend values, the productions in two years later would increase.ii) The growth rate of the world nominal GDP significantly affected to the price levels of aluminum, copper, lead and nickel.
社団法人資源・素材学会の論文
2001-04-25