原発のリスク経済分析 : 「安全神話」から「想定外の事象」まで (特集 ファイナンス、経済経営リスクの諸問題 : 有馬敏則教授の退職を記念して)
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This paper deals with a risk-economic analysis of nuclear power generation, a very timely yet rather neglected area in the economics profession.As a recent issue of The Economist noticed, there are some natural disasters that may change history and the Great East Japan Earthquakecould presumably be one. The magnitude-nine earthquake and several aftershocks were followed by big tsunamis which wiped out whole towns, and unfortunately by nuclear meltdowns. The economic and psychological consequences of Japan’s catastrophe were so grave and wide-spread, thus calling for careful reexamination of the economics of risk and uncertainty. In historical perspective, the concept of risk is old and new. In old days, the phrase such as “earthquake, thunder, fire, and angry father” represented the most fearful items in people’s mind. In modern times, however, men became more concerned about a series of new items “radioactivity, global warming, pollution, and AIDS.” It is Daniel Bernoulli, a mathematical genius of the 18th century, who first introduced the expected utility theory into people’s decision making under risk. Although a great deal of applications have been done in many areas since then, I believe that the most recent nuclear meltdown of Japan casted serious doubt over the general validity of existing risk theories. It is high time for us to establish a new comprehensiveapproach by taking account of psychological, sociological, cultural, and historical factors.
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