How Centralization Affects Voter Turnout: The Case of California
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概要
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The Downsian model of voting predicts that only a few people will vote since the expected return to voting is far smaller than the cost. But in reality, millions vote. This paradox of voting remains unsolved for more than half a century. I examine empirically the prediction in the context of fi scal centralization which occurred in California in the late 1970s. The state of California limited the property tax rate to 1 percent of the purchase price when Proposition 13 was approved by the electorate in 1978. As a result, property tax revenues, on which local governments rely, declined to less than half, and the authorities lost discretionary power to set tax policy. I test the hypotheses that voter turnout for elected government officials at local level was lower after the passage of proposition 13 than before since the electoral outcomes matter less. I address voting for county boards of supervisors and school board members. Findings suggest that voter turnout for county boards of supervisors declined but that for school board members did not.
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