AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE-TYPE RAINFALL-RUNOFF-INUNDATION PREDICTION FOR 2011 THAILAND FLOOD

概要

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An emergency response-type flood prediction was conducted for the devastating 2011 Thailand flood with a recently developed Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model. The prediction conducted in mid-October 2011, when the flood peak was just approaching, indicated that the large-scale inundation in the lower part of the Chao Phraya River basin might remain in the area even until the end of November. The post flood analysis verified that the above prediction was reasonable. On the other hand, the predicted discharge and inundation water level during the peak flood were overestimated by approximately 40% and 2 m, respectively. According to the numerical simulations with updated input information, the ignorance of the evapotranspiration effects was the dominant factor for the overestimation among uncertainty factors including the representations of dams and river cross-sections. Based on the detailed validations and analysis, this paper discusses what the up-to-date RRI model can and cannot predict and what information should be prioritized as input over other information.
Japan Society of Civil Engineersの論文