INVESTIGATING OCCURRENCE POSSIBILITY OF ABNORMALLY STRONG WIND SPEED ESTIMATED USING WIDTH RECORDS OF RESIN FRECKLE LEFT ALONG ANNUAL RINGS OF 'YAKUSUGI
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概要
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Manabe(1968) suggested an occurrence of typhoon-generated abnormally strong wind speeds reaching 93.5 m/s at Yakushima from the analysis of resin freckles left along annual rings on a stump of the 'Yakusugi'(Yakushima Cedar) with a tree age of more than 1,500 years. This paper gives a re-estimate of 70 m/s wind speed at a height of 10 m through reanalysis of the relationship between annual width of freckles in the recent years on the stump and annual maximum wind speed measured at Yakushima. An extreme value analysis for a sample of annual maximum wind speed consisting of measurements in recent years and data converted from around 1,500 year-long freckle records using the above-mentioned relationship indicates that the return period of wind speed may be around 2,000 years. An analytical consideration and Monte-Carlo simulation on typhoon-generated extreme wind speed imply that the abnormally strong wind speed event may occur in a time scale of around 5,000 years.
- Japan Society of Civil Engineersの論文
Japan Society of Civil Engineers | 論文
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