Trend and Jump Analyses of Winds Speeds and Wave Heights Based on Their Long-Term Hindcasts in the Inner Sea Areas of Japan Using Measurement Data of Sea Level Pressure

概要

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Hourly wind distributions on 3 regional sea areas which include the Kanto Sea Area, Ise Bay and the Seto Inland Sea are estimated using the measurement data of sea level pressure around the areas over a 45-year period form 1961 to 2005, after which a 45-year wave hindcasting is conducted station by station. For monthly- and yearly-highest 1/3-averaged wind speeds and wave heights, hindcasts are in reasonable agreement with measurements. Trend and jump analyses for yearly-highest 1/3-averaged atmospheric pressures, wind speeds and wave heights yield the following results : 1) Pressure does not exhibit any trend or jump. 2) Both wind speed and wave height show a statistically significant increasing trend and positive jump putting a pivotal year at around 1986, and their intensities become weaker toward the western area.
Japan Society of Civil Engineersの論文