Global Stochasic Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Application to Analysis of Future Cyclone Properties due to Global Climate Change
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概要
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The scarcity of tropical cyclone data causes the difficulty of external force estimation for coastal structures. The Stochastic Tropical cyclone Model (STM) is a useful method for overcoming this problem. We developed a global STM based on IBTrACS dataset and validated the model performance for statistics of tropical cyclone data. After that, the future change estimated from 8 different General Circulation Model projections under global warming scenarios was implemented in the STM. By using the STM, we estimated the future cyclone number and magnitude quantitatively.
- Japan Society of Civil Engineersの論文
Japan Society of Civil Engineers | 論文
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