日本の潜在的な自然植生分布に対する気候変化の影響予測

概要

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In a previous paper, we modified some sub-models of BIOME3 to be applied to 1×1 km mesh data in order to increase the accuracy of simulation.<BR>Using this modified model, we estimated potential natural vegetation distribution under climatic change using 4 types of GCM experiment data. GCM data that can be used presently have rough spatial resolution, so it is difficult to estimate the effect of climatic change at a local scale. Therefore, we used GCM data around Japan that was interpolated to a 10×10 km mesh.<BR>We calculated the NPP, and predicted the distribution of potential natural vegetation and its vulnerability for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results from the simulation indicated the possibility of 60-100% increase of NPP in the 2080s. The increase in NPP was explained by the increase in air temperature and the concentration of CO<SUB>2</SUB>. Potential natural vegetation in Japan would be affected over a wide area by climatic change. In particular, the alpine plants/subalpine conifer forest area would decrease. In mixed forest in the Hokkaido area, where broad-leaved deciduous trees and conifer trees coexist, broad-leaved deciduous trees would become dominant. Broad-leaved evergreen forest area would expand, and the subtropical forest would to a prior species along the coastline of western Japan.
日本農業気象学会の論文