Epidemiological Studies on The peculiar time of Food Poisoning (1)
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概要
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Peculiarities related to the outbreak of food poisoning were studied referring to the number of occurrences and patients stated in the "List for Outbreaks of Food Poisoning", edited by the Food Sanitation Division, Kanagawa Prefectural Office, as well as the values calculated from the prediction model obtained by a discriminant analysis. It was studied from 1979 to 1988, 10 years in total, 5 months from June to October each year.<BR>1) Peculiar days for the outbreak of food poisoning were September 4th, 8th, 7th and 13th and August 26th in that order according to the mean of occurrences and the coefficient of variation.<BR>2) Referring to the number of patients, peculiar days were September 4th and 13th, August 5th and 25th, and July 29th.<BR>3) From the above results, the peculiar days referring to the number of occurrences and patients were accumulated in the first half of September.<BR>4) Frequency of occurrences by weekdays as to the number of occurrences and patients were known from the statistical tests to be significantly higher on Sundays, Fridays and Tuesdays, and lower on Wednesdays.<BR>5) In the predicted level, no significant difference was noted between any of the weekdays.<BR>6) Terms predicted for the outbreak of food poisoning were: from July 14th to 17th, and from July 23rd to September 17th, according to means of the prediction levels by days, wherein the highest was noted in the period from August 20th to 23rd, 4 days in all.<BR>As stated above, such a discrepancy caused between the predicted levels based on the environmental factors and the actual incidences reveals that some artifactual influence such as social factors like eating habits, etc., and those who cooked the meals are strongly connected to the occurrence of food poisoning. Thus, it seems to be feasible to improve accuracy of the prediction model for the outbreak of food poisoning, if the mean value by days and weekdays in the number of occurrences and patients or even the mean prediction level by days is employed as a dummy variable, in addition to the environmental factors. Furthermore, it is also considered necessary to establish a prediction model for the outbreak of food poisoning every month, if it is required after application of the administrative policy.
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