Demand Forecasting of Techo-Super-Liner on the basis of AHP Score

概要

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Now Techo-Super-Liner (TSL) is researched, in a movement of modal-shift. Its speed is intermediate between airplane and autotruck. It will change the system of physical distribution. Feasibility studies are testing in many cities. The most important point of a feasibility study is forecasting a demand of TSL precisely. In this paper, we try to make a model for forecasting a demand of TSL. Up to now, a model split model for physical distribution has been made with marco data only. We can't make a modal split model for TSL by the former method. So we try to make it by AHP.<BR>First we investigate TSL specification, and review the former modal split model for physical distribution. Next we indicate the characteristic of it, and select suitable goods for TSL. Consequently we extract eight goods for making a model. We get informations and data to make a model from a hearing with shippers and others. So we use 5 items for evaluation standared : cost, speed, lot size, operation schedule and unit load. Under Hierarchy chart, we compute weights of evaluation standards and evaluation scores.<BR>Finally we get logistic curve between modal split rates and evaluation scores. We compute a modal split rate of TSL and a demand with this curve. So we indicate a validity of this method.
日本物流学会の論文