Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history

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概要

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• Tokachi-oki earthquake in northern Japan, September 25, 2003, magnitude 8.1, was predicted six months in advance by a short-term earthquake precursor "<I>chain</I>" that reflects an increase of the correlation range among small earthquakes. This prediction is part of the ongoing test of a new short-term prediction method; the test covers territories of Japan, California, and Eastern Mediterranean. Qualitatively, precursory chain is a dense sequence of small earthquakes that had quickly extended over a long distance. A strong earthquake is expected within nine months after such chain is formed, in its formally defined vicinity. Chains are analyzed in conjunction with intermediate-term precursors, emerging with characteristic lead time of years. Methodology of prediction is named "Reverse Tracing of Precursors" (<I>RTP</I>), since precursors are considered in the reverse order of their appearance. That allows detecting short-term precursors not detectable with direct order of analysis. <I>RTP</I> was tested retrospectively for California, Japan, and Eastern Mediterranean, where 22 more strong earthquakes occurred during the time considered. The concept underlying <I>RTP</I> is interaction of lithosphere dynamics on different temporal scales. The described results enhance our fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics and, on the practical side, our capability for earthquakes preparedness.

• 公益社団法人 日本地震学会、地球電磁気・地球惑星圏学会 、特定非営利活動法人 日本火山学会、日本測地学会、日本惑星科学会の論文

著者

• Shebalin P.

  International Institute For Earthquake Prediction Theory And Mathematical Geophysics Russian Ac. Sci

• NAGAO T.

  Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University

• Tsybin N.

  Russian Federation State Research Center State Research Institute Of Aviation Systems

• Zaliapin I.

  International Institute For Earthquake Prediction Theory And Mathematical Geophysics Russian Ac. Sci

• Keilis-borok V.

  International Institute For Earthquake Prediction Theory And Mathematical Geophysics Russian Ac. Sci

• Uyeda S.

  Earthquake Prediction Research Center Tokai University

関連論文

• Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history
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• Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history

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