Step-functional Change in Annual Peak Flow Illustrated for the Ishikari River at Hashimoto-cho, Hokkaido
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概要
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Analysis designed to test for step functions in time series provides an alternative to cyclic and secular analysis; it also amplifies probability analysis as this is usually practised. For the Ishikari River, step-functional testing identifies blocks of years, with average length 5 years, when annual floods ran generally above, generally below, or generally close to the series mean. Parallel testing for the Wabash River identifies runs of either high or low values, with average length between 4 and 5 years. Separate Gumbel graphs can be drawn for the high-flow and low-flow regimes, and also (if it exists) for the regime close to the mean. While long-term forecasting is not affected by our results, these do suggest great fluctuations in the flood hazard, in the short term.
- 日本陸水学会の論文
日本陸水学会 | 論文
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