LAND USE CHANGES WITH POPULATION GROWTH

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With the growth in urban population, the problem of the conversion of land from rural to urban uses has stimulated a great deal of interest among many geographers. To my knowledge, however, practically all researches so far conducted have been based on empirical case studies. The problem is so complicated that we may hardly study it analy-tically and theoretically. In this paper I consider how and what kind of urban land uses appear with population growth, applying the input-output analysis. The economic factor, one of the factors determining the human behavior, has been considered as the direct motive by which land uses are determined. In more detail, however, it may be necessary to put emphasis on the industrial structure, which determines land uses through interdependence, rather than the economic units. Herein lies the validity to apply the input-output analysis to this study by manipulating actual data. The theoretical framework of this paper is as follows. Population growth in a given region gives more or less the demand to the industries in the region. This increase in final demand YI should make the output of each industry increase XT=(I-a)-1 YI where I is identity matrix and a technical input coefficients matrix. Let space area Si, which is needed by industry i per unit of its own output, be technically determined, and space area SixIi will be necessary for industry i according to the population growth. I applied this procedure to Urayasu in Chiba Prefecture, where the population has rapidly grown since 1969. In the first place I estimated how much final demand in-creased with the population growth from 1970 to 1971, and then calculated each increased land-use area SixIi for industry i on the basis of the data as to technical input coefficients matrix and space area Si. Comparing this calculated area for industry i with actually increased one, the following results were obtained. 1. Commercial land uses tend to appear and enlarge with population growth, while manufacturing land uses have insignificant relations to population increase. 2. Commercial land uses are considered to comprise two land-use types. The first type is characterized by increase in output per unit area with population growth as exemplified by furniture and household equipment retailing, automobile maintenance, professional services and medical services. In the second type the concerned land-use area enlarges according to population increase. Grocery, eating and drinking place, real estate agent, house and room renting and so on are typical.
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LAND USE CHANGES WITH POPULATION GROWTH

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