Impacts of Climatic Change on World Agricultural Product Markets: Estimation of Macro Yield Functions

概要

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Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss climate changes report the yield changes estimated by using crop process models; however, studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very few. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets, i.e.,supply and demand of crops, by using a world food model and newly estimated yield functions. These yield functions include rainfall and temperature as climate variables, and the estimated parameters are used in the world food model. The stationarity of these yield data is tested and appropriate functional forms are selected. The results suggest that yields of major crops will decrease because of rising temperatures in many countries and regions, however, market price impacts of changes in production of these crops are not large because of trade. The countries which suffer severe damage because of higher temperature may need to consider changes in cropping patterns and practices.
独立行政法人　国際農林水産業研究センターの論文