内戦、経済成長、天然資源:天然資源は祝福（blessing）か、呪い（curse）か？
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概要
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This paper attempts to uncover the complex relationship among civil wars, economic growth, and natural resources. Whereas existing empirical studies have found that a country with abundant natural resources is more likely to experience civil war onset and slow economic growth than a country without abundant resources, they do not consider the endogenous relationship between civil war and economic growth. In short, these two variables: economic growth and civil wars: interact with each other. However previous studies tend to focus solely on the direct mechanism between natural resource and civil war, and natural resource and economic growth, despite the fact that the interaction between civil wars and economic growth indicates the probability of indirect mechanism about resource curse (e.g. natural resource increases the risk of civil war but do not directly affect economic growth). Since the endogeneity problem is considered to be serious, this paper excludes this bias by using the two-stage probit least square method to reveal the exact effect of natural resource on civil war and economic growth. The data analysis provides the following three results: (1) even after the in-depth analysis removing the endogeneity bias, the civil war has the negative impact on the economic growth and vice versa, (2) whereas oil production causes the civil war as the direct curse, it deteriorates the economic growth as the indirect curse via the onset of civil wars, (3) although the dependence on oil export directly causes the economic growth, it promotes the probability of the civil war onset through the economic downturn.
- 財団法人 日本国際政治学会の論文