Development of Estimation Method of Spatial Average Irradiance Fluctuation Characteristics Considering Smoothing Effect around Observation Point

概要

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In order to estimate the total power output fluctuation of high-penetration photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) by using the data of limited number of points, the smoothing effect around individual observation point should be taken into account. Based on the transfer hypothesis, this study proposed a low-pass filter to estimate the spatial average irradiance fluctuation characteristics taking the smoothing effect around observation point into account. First, by using the irradiance data observed at 18 points in the Nobi plain, we confirmed that the fluctuation characteristics of spatial average irradiance can be estimated by using the characteristics of single point irradiance when the radius of equivalent circle area is smaller than 30km. Then, by formulating the relation between the area size and the fluctuation cycle from which the random fluctuation factor begins to increase, we developed a low-pass filter to take the smoothing effect around observation point into account. Finally, we demonstrated that the spatial average fluctuation characteristics can be estimated successfully for various area sizes within the radius of 20km by applying the dedicated low-pass filter according to the area size.