An optimal control problem of dynamical vaccine allocation in an influenza epidemic model

概要

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When a new influenza epidemic is going on, it is important to promptly plan the schedule of production and allocation of vaccines in order to mitigate the severity of the influenza. Because the production of vaccines starts after identification of the antigenic type of the spreading influenza virus, it is almost impossible to store adequate amounts of vaccines in advance. Therefore, it is necessary to timely produce and distribute the available vaccines under a daily and total limit. In this study, we formulate an optimal control problem on dynamical vaccine allocation that minimizes the number of fatalities or that of infections in an age-structured influenza epidemic model. By numerically solving this problem, we can obtain the optimal amount of vaccines allocated to each age-group on a moment-to-moment basis. We also demonstrate that the framework for optimal control of dynamical vaccine allocation is applicable to the concurrent epidemic model of seasonal and pandemic influenza.[This abstract is not included in the PDF]