数学モデルによる平均余命の将来予測〔英文〕

概要

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Annual changes of life expectancy at birth for males and females in Japan during the 1950-1976 period agree well with Gompertz curves. They also agree well with logistic curves as well as modified exponential curves. However, final values are slightly different among these three mathematical models. An equation was attained between life expectancy at birth and per capita national medical care expenditure during the abovementioned period in Japan. Factors affecting life expectancy at birth are discussed with special reference to regular decline of mortality. By means of Gompertz model, a prediction of future age-specific life expectancy was performed. Expected values mostly agree well with Hishinuma's estimations derived from the lowest mortality in 1974 in the world and a modified 1975 Japanese life table.
日本民族衛生学会の論文