Parliamentary Management and Elections:A Heteroskedastic Probit Model of Legislative Voting
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概要
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The literature on the Diet places emphasis on the unanimity norm in parliamentary management that seems to facilitate interparty accommodation and make the legislative process more "viscous" than it appears. Yet, some argue that the downward trend in the ruling majority's parliamentary strength gradually facilitates the evolution of consultation between the government and the opposition. This study focuses on examining how the development of parliamentary accommodation in the Diet is affected by the shifting partisan share of parliamentary seats, and the deliberation process of individual legislation through which the government and the opposition interact. In particular, I use statistical techniques to estimate the likelihood of an opposition party to support a government bill. Taking into consideration, the heteroskedastic distribution of supporting and opposing votes over deliberation, time I arrive at the following conclusion: (1) The level of government-opposition agreement is structured along with the left-right ideological dimension. (2) Longer deliberation time does not raise the level of government-opposition agreement. (3) The way the ruling majority's parliamentary strength affects the likelihood of an opposition party to support a government bill depends on the ideological location of the opposition party.In contrast to the consensual and culture-driven views of the Diet, this study sheds new light on the institutional design of the Diet that facilitates partisan and policy-oriented parliamentary management in the Diet.
- 日本選挙学会の論文
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- Parliamentary Management and Elections:A Heteroskedastic Probit Model of Legislative Voting