準理想的重点サンプリング法を結合した条件付期待値シミュレーションに基づく構造破損確率の評価法（再帰的シミュレーションによる準理想的重点サンプリング周辺確率密度の決定法）

概要

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This paper describes a quasi ideal importance sampling simulation combined with the conditional expectation method for the simulation-based structural reliability estimation. A quasi ideal importance sampling joint probability density function is formulated on the basis of the ideal importance sampling concept and the respective marginal probability densities are constructed numerically by recursive simulations and piecewise integrations. The respective quasi ideal importance sampling marginal probability densities are renewed through recursive simulation procedures. Numerical examples to estimate the failure probability of structures with multiple failure modes show that the proposed method gives accurate estimations of the failure probability of structures efficiently.