わが国における結核死亡率の推移の予測に対する試み
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
An attempt was made to predict the time when tuberculosis death rate in Japan becomes as low as 2 to 4 per 100, 000 as seen in Europe and USA. The prediction will certainly be of great help for the future study of establishing countermeasures against tuberculosis. A statistical analysis was made on the annual death rate of 14 countries from which reliable figures until 1964 are available. Tuberculosis death rate of the above 14 countries showed a pattern of normal distribution.<BR>It was found that tuberculosis death rate decreases in a form of a monotonous function. The validity of approximate equations for the determination of tuberculosis death rate was confirmed by comparing the theoretical values with the actually observed figures.<BR>Statistical analyses thus conducted indicated that tuberculosis death rate will become approximately 3 per 100, 000 around 1980, if the serious factors such as war which might influence the declining trend of tuberculosis are excluded.
- 一般社団法人 日本結核病学会の論文