Estimating Tourism Demands and Substitution Effect using the Kuhn-Tucker Model: An Application in Nara Prefecture

概要

論文の詳細を見る
In tourism demand analysis, the random utility model has been used to estimate data including tourists’ site selection processes. Recently, the Kuhn-Tucker model (KT), which is more consistent in relation to the utility maximization problem, has been developed. In this study, the attributes of demand analysis using KT are examined through comparison with the repeated discrete choice model. The travel data for eight sites in Nara Prefecture in Japan were used. As a result, the demands calculated using KT are (1) consistent with the observed data and (2) larger than those calculated by the repeated discrete choice model. Finally, the magnitude of the substitution effects is examined. It is concluded that Nara area has the largest substitution effect among all sites.