都市内人口移動の計量的分析

概要

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The object of this paper is to examine the weight of distance, thought to act as friction to migration, in a small area representing 90% of the D. I. D. of the city of Okezawa. First, the simple regression equation Mf=96.8930-29.2230 log D (X) was drawn. This equation produced the “Mean Migration Probability Field”-the spatial distribution of probabilities of intra-urban migration. Second, the probability of migration in cell Mi was computed from: Pr.(Mi)= n-1Σj-1Mij/nΣi-1 n-1Σj-1Mij (i, j=1, 2, ..., n). A simulated output set (Fig. 6, 7) was made after matching random numbers, equal to the number of migratory households, against the “Mean Migration Probability Field” (Fig. 4, 5). Finally, the simulated pattern of intra-urban migration was compared graphically with the actual pattern of intra-urban migration (Fig. 8-11). Results of the comparison were not satisfactory. But a general statement is proposed as follows: It is clear that the friction effect of distance works on intra-urban migration (Fig. 3 (b)). The “Mean Migration Probability Field”, however, needs to be reconstructed so as to more accurately reproduce the actual pattern of migration.