Input-Output and Integrated Models for Demo-Economic Impact Analysis-an Empirical Comparison.
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概要
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QUIP is an integrated input-output + economitric model of the Queensland economy. It was designed to replace the conventional input-output model for analysing economic impacts at the state level. Therefore it is pertinent to compare the results from the two types of models as an aid in the understanding and interpretation of the results. In general, the integrated model will produce smaller aggregate impacts than the closed input-output model in a static context (because of the use of marginal rather than average primary factor and household coefficients), but at a disaggregated industry level, it tends to redistribute the flow-ons from the service type industries to manufacturing type industries which have more rigid production structures. In a dynamic context, the input-output model misses the flow-through effects on the economy in later time periods through demographic changes. The integrated model shows that these flow-through effects are substantial and can more than double the size of the short-run multipliers.
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