少子・高齢化の地域経済へのインパクト : 名古屋計量モデルによる経済分析

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This paper analyzes the impact of an aging on the local economy in Nagoya City, and discusses the conditions for solving the budget deficit of local finance, using an econometric model. The model is a simultaneous model of Nagoya City, for this purpose, the budget components to be carefully estimated, on one hand, and the population block to be built, using the cohort-component method, on the other hand. The analyses are based on two simulations for a prediction period of 1998-2010. These assumptions of two simulations are as follows. (1) the aging population is increasing according to the data of the cohort-component method and (2) the aging population is fixed in 1997, in both cases the other exogenous variables are fixed in 1997. From the results of simulations, we find that the gap between the expenditure and the revenue minus local bond is 852.7 billion Yen and the burden of per aged person is 3, 600, 000 Yen in 2010.