Assessment for the 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

概要

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This study assessed the future change of the 30-year return level of daily precipitation due to global warming for Kagoshima Prefecture, (except for the Amami Islands) in southern Kyushu, Japan, using regional frequency analysis. The 20km-mesh regional climate model (MRI-RCM20) was used for this analysis. The present climate data was reproduced for the years 1981 through 2000, and the future climate data was projected for the years 2081 through 2100 under the greenhouse gas emission scenario SRES A2. Over Kagoshima Prefecture, the future change of the regional average of annual maximum daily precipitation was projected to increase by only 3.3%. However, the quantile that corresponds to the non-exceedance probability of the 30-year return level was projected to increase by 14.5%. As a result, in Kagoshima Prefecture, the 30-year return level of daily precipitation was projected as likely to increase by 18.3% in about one hundred years.