Ocean acidification off the south coast of Japan : A result from time series observations of CO2 parameters from 1994 to 2008

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Ocean acidification resulting from increases in present and future atmospheric CO2 levels could seriously affect diverse coastal and oceanic ecosystems. In this work, we determine that a significant trend in ocean acidification is superposed on the large seasonal and interannual variabilities of acidity in surface waters off the south coast of Honshu, Japan, based on our repeated observations of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), total inorganic carbon (TCO2), and pH. Multiple regression analysis of TCO2 as a function of temperature, salinity, and timing of observations shows that TCO2 increased at a rate of + 1.23 ± 0.40 μmol kg^[-1] yr^[-1] for the period 1994-2008, while no long-term change has been determined for total alkalinity calculated from TCO2 and pCO2 in seawater. These results indicate that pH and the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) are decreasing at a rate of -0.020 ± 0.007 decade^[-1] and -0.12 ± 0.05 decade^[-1], respectively. If future atmospheric CO2 levels keep increasing as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1FI, which postulates intensive fossil fuel use associated with very rapid economic growth, a further reduction of -0.8 to -1.0 in Ωarag is likely in the next 50 years. Such a rapid reduction of Ωarag could have negative impacts on a variety of calcareous organisms.
2011-06-28