大学入試を廻る長期展望

概要

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With a long continuous trend of the population of 18-year-olds decreasing, the university applicant's decreasing tendency becomes a big problem for many universities. It is forecast that the number of applicants for universities will decrease 20% in 2010 from present level.　The long-term view related to the university entrance exam is shown in this research. We focus on the fact that the average number of applying universities per one-applicant decreases with the decrease of competing rate. It is thought that the gross university competing rate synchronizes with the number of applicants for universities, and the auther construct the model of estimation.　The result of the auther's forecast shows that because of the tendency of decreasing number of applications per one applicant, the number of applicants to universities will severely decrease, and the decreasing pace is greater than that of 18 year-olds' population. Accurately, it is forecast that the gross number of applicants to universities decreases to the half or one-thirds of the present level.　Using the result, the auther show the prediction of the number of applicants to Tohoku University of Art and Design.
東北芸術工科大学,トウホクゲイジュツコウカダイガク,Tohoku University of Art and Designの論文