Predicting Strong Ground Motions with a “Recipe”

概要

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A recipe is proposed for estimating strong ground motions from specific earthquakes based on source characteristics from waveform inversion using strong motion data. The main features of the source model are characterized by three kinds of fault parameters, which we call: outer, inner, and extra fault parameters. The outer fault parameters provide overall pictures of the target earthquakes such as entire source area and seismic moment. The inner fault parameters characterize stress heterogeneity inside the fault area. The extra fault parameters are considered to complete the source model, and include starting point and propagation pattern of the rupture. The seismic hazard maps for future large earthquakes with a high probability of occurrence potential are based on the idea of the recipe proposed here by two governmental organizations, the Headquarters of Earthquake Research Center and Central Disaster Prevention Council in Japan.