Earthquake System Science in Southern California

概要

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The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) coordinates an extensive research program in earthquake system science involving more than 500 scientists at more than 50 research institutions. The Center works toward a physics-based, predictive understanding of earthquake phenomena in the Southern California natural laboratory through interdisciplinary studies of fault system dynamics, earthquake forecasting and predictability, earthquake source physics, and ground motions; it seeks to apply this understanding to improving seismic hazard analysis and reducing earthquake risk. This paper reviews the last 5-year research program (SCEC2, 2002-2007) and plans for the next (SCEC3, 2007-2012,). It describes the Community Modeling Environment, a collaboratory for simulating earthquake processes using high-performance computing facilities and advanced information technologies. The SCEC3 plans include the establishment of a new infrastructure for conducting and evaluating scientific earthquake prediction experiments, the development of a uniform time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast for California, a major study of the Southern San Andreas Fault, and end-to-end (”rupture-to-rafters”) earthquake simulations that incorporate built structures into the geologic environment. SCEC also hopes to expand its international partnerships with Japan and other countries seeking to reduce seismic risk.