ロジット・モデルによる「自由化」に対する酪農経営者の意見形成要因の分析

概要

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An attempt has been made to identify dairy managers' awareness of the trade liberalization of milk products based on the factors relating to individual farm household and personal factors such as farming philosophy, creativity, and managerial attitudes. A farm survey was conducted of dairy managers in Hokkaido and 613 dairy farms responded. A multi-logit model was used in order to relate the distribution of four different awareness levels regarding trade liberalization with the factors causing these attitudes. The result of estimation, based on a maximum-likelihood approach, satisfactory interpreted. Finally, simple simulation has been made. Significant causal factors for managers' attitudes were the 1) dissatisfaction as to prevailing production quota, 2) heavy farm debt, and 3) dairyman's practices as a manager. Consequently, if increased production is allowed under the current production quota scheme and if loan repayment is subsidized, calculated probability of the attitude that agree to gradual liberalization of domestic market will increase. It should be stressed that education and extension activities are essential since it was found that dairy managers who want to continue a protection policy have not been executing basic management practices, such as data recording, numerical analysis, the basis for scientific management decisions.
北海道農業経済学会の論文