マルチシナリオ地震モデルとキャパシティ・スペクトル法に基づく地震リスク評価の建築構造物への適用

概要

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In order to evaluate the seismic risk of buildings, it is important to evaluate the entire damage process of buildings beginning with the rupture of seismic sources, as well as integrating the up-to-date information for uncertainties of each event. The time-domain response analysis is one of the seamless methods to evaluate the entire damage process of buildings. But it is not practical for risk assessment, because it is required to take into account the staggering amount of the possible scenario earthquakes. For the sake of practical and rational use of risk assessment, Takahashi (2004) proposed a seamless seismic risk management methodology utilizing the capacity spectrum method. In this paper, the methodology is extended to the source-focused and multi-scenario seismic model integrated with the event-tree analysis for evaluating the variability of seismic losses. The proposed methodology is applied to a mid-rise reinforced concrete building, and it is shown that the seismic losses are not linearly increasing with the increase in the ground acceleration. Furthermore, it takes only 10 minutes to compute about a million seismic scenarios by a standard PC, then it shows the usefulness of proposed method for the practical risk assessment such as PML (probable maximum loss) for the securitization of real estate.
一般社団法人日本建築学会の論文
2009-03-27