D214 地域限定型台風シミュレーションを用いた極値風速の評価について(OS2 再生可能エネルギー(風力設備の被害と最適化))

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The design of wind turbines is commonly based on the standardized class, which includes the 50 years return period, annual maximum wind speed (hereafter, Vref) and turbulence intensity, defined in IEC61400-1. Often in Japan, the actual wind conditions at site are higher than those specifies in IEC class. IEC61400-1 define that Vref equals to five times of annual average wind speed (hereafter, Vave). But in Japanese area, the ratio is five times or more. The prime cause of such conditions is typhoon. We developed the stochastic typhoon model for estimating typhoon-derived extreme wind speed. Typhoon parameters and their time variations were analyzed around Japanese Islands in about five decades. Their occurrence probabilities, auto-regression and bootstrap method were introduced into a stochastic typhoon model for simulating parameters during a long period by using the Monte Carlo Method. And surface wind speed is calculated by LOCALS^<TM> which is numerical weather prediction model. This research includes the following more detailed results. (1) Some case studies for validating our typhoon simulation. (2) Estimated Vref values by 10,000 years typhoon simulation at Japanese South area, including onshore and offshore. (3) Comparison the Vave / Vref derived from our simulation and 15 years meteorological observation data and defined in IEC61400-1.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2011-06-22