E-4 Project Negotiation Modeling with Bayesian Network

概要

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One of characteristics of project negotiations is that they are growing complex very fast, because there are so many things to negotiate. In our research, negotiators are to deal with two parameters at a time (one parameter is money) on a separate Visual Models. To negotiate three or more parameters simultaneously considered to be over-confusing for a human being. The output of the Visual Models in the form of a mathematical expressions will be input into the Nodes Graph of Bayesian Network decision making software, where negotiation variables are broken into pairs of nodes, forming a simple model of variables that are individually connected to the skeletal chain of money nodes. Parameter's probability status will be automatically updated with new uncertainties through the mathematical relations network. In this way, all the parameters of negotiation will be indirectly interrelated. Depending on the cases of the negotiation, specific layout of negotiation conditions should be developed on the Visual Model and Nodes Graph. Negotiators will get an intuitive/visual grasp of the negotiation's big picture, quantitatively understand any risks involved. After all, a human is the one to make final decisions.
2012-04-21