Spatial Estimation of Sika Deer Population Density Distribution

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We estimated the spatial distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) population density in areas around Mt. Hiko in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. The data comprised pellet counts in 86 plots from February to April 1999 and from November 1999 to March 2000. Taking this to correspond to the population density in the plots, the sika deer population density was mapped using a kriging interpolator. Five semivariograms were examined in a geographic information system (GIS): spherical, circular, exponential, Gaussian, and linear with sill models. We used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to select the appropriate semivariogram model. The spherical model produced the smallest values in both the AIC and BIC. The ordinary kriging interpolator with the spherical model provided the deer population density at intervals of 50m. Four distinct high-density areas, in which the deer density exceeded 30/km^2, were found around Mt. Kosho and Mt. Hiko. Using independent data for the damage caused by deer and the map of the sika deer density, we estimated the deer densities in all plots where the damage by deer had been checked, and determined the relation between population density and the degree of browsing damage, which is most serious in Fukuoka Prefecture. As the sika deer population density increases, the proportion of damaged plots increases. Of plots with the density exceeding 40 deer/km^2, browsing damage occurred in 83%. This method provides insight into the density of deer over a broad region and, in combination with the information about deer damage, can be applied to give the probability of deer damage.
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Spatial Estimation of Sika Deer Population Density Distribution

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