交差免疫性のある2 種類の病原体に対するSIRSモデルの解析

概要

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This paper examines the effect of cross-immunity for epidemic models which describe the infection dynamicsof two pathogen strains such as seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses. Double epidemic models generallydose not have a steady state at which represents the coexistence of two strains, however the cross-immunityenables the model to have a coexistent equilibrium. In this study, a SIRS double epidemic model withcross-immunity σ is analyzed theoretically and numerically. Depending on the values of σ, the model mayhave four equilibria, namely, disease free, two endemic and coexistence. The existence of equilibria andtheir local stabilities can be determined by the basic reproduction numbers for two strains. To illustratethe difference in the dynamics caused by the intensity of cross-immunity, numerical examples are providedfor some σ.
沼津工業高等専門学校の論文
2011-01-31