世界製材品需要の価格・GDP弾性値の推計 : 国のグループ分けにクラスター分析を用いて

概要

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The aim of this research is to find international price and GDP elasticities of demand for sawnwood. Cluster analysis is used to group 180 countries dealt with in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) using cross-section data of per capita GDP, per capita consumption of sawnwood, and forest coverage. The application of cluster analysis before estimating demand elasticities helps to solve the problem of data availability and to avoid grouping countries arbitrarily. In this research, long-term static models, short-term and long-term dynamic models are estimated using panel data analysis of each cluster. The results show that, in accordance with economic theory, long-term dynamic elasticities are higher than short-term dynamic elasticities, and dynamic model estimations are better than static model estimations as shown in RMSE values.
2010-11-01