上水道供給支障率予測モデルの検討 : 重要度評価とファジィ数量化理論の応用

概要

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There have been several simulation models for the evaluation of lifeline supply functions. These models so far developed are very complicated. And they require a long computational time due to a network inter-linkage analysis and so on. Recently, to improve the complexity, Hoshiya and others proposed a simple forecasting model for the seismic damage restoration of city water supply functions. In this model, the supply interruption rate is estimated by the linear multiple regression model. Therefore, it is easy to estimate its rate for any damage patterns at every moment. In the above model, however, there are some unstable conditions in the calculation of multiple regression analysis. Since the intensity of importance of nodes and links is used as an explanatory variable, it is necessary to get a proper estimation of its intensity. However, it is difficult to express its intensity quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to consider these subjects of instability and to consider how to evaluate the intensity of importance. There are vague variables such as the intensity of importance mentioned above. Therefore, the another object of this study is to discuss the applicability of Fuzzy quantification theories to the forecasting model of supply interruption rate.
福山大学の論文