Basic Investigation on Formal Safety Assessment : Risk Analysis of Fires in Ship Engine Rooms

概要

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The IMO and its committees concerned are giving serious consideration to the adoption of Formal Safety Assessment or FSA for ships. This approach is expected to be used to improve the development of prescriptive regulations. In order for FSA to be applied, various techniques such as those used in probabilistic risk assessment, cost benefit analysis, and the like are needed. In this context, the Society has been conducting various studies regarding the application of FSA methodologies, with particular attention to risk assessment methodologies during the first stage. This paper details a study of risk assessment of engine room fires onboard ship. Engine room fires account for about 50% of the fires occurring onboard ship and are the focus of this paper with particular reference to a typical bulk carrier. Systematic risk analyses techniques such as Event Tree Analysis are conducted in order to identify the frequency of occurrence and the effects of such fires. Trial applications of these techniques to engine room fires demonstrated the possibility of applying a probabilistic approach to ships, although not a few problems yet remain to be solved.
財団法人日本海事協会の論文