Herd Behavior in the Japanese Loan Market : Evidence from Semi-Macro Data

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This paper examines whether or not herd behavior exists between different types of Japanese banks. Using data of loans outstanding by bank type from 1980 to 2000, we investigate statistical causality between loans from different types of banks in Japan. The results manifest significant causality from city banks to regional banks, from long-term credit banks to city banks, and from trust banks to city banks. Consistent with historical events in Japan, these relationships have been particularly strong for loans to emerging industries and for loans in the 1980s. We also conducted analysis to clarify possible causes of the detected herding. Among different stories behind herd behavior, the results are most consistent with the behavior based on reference from another type of bank. The results between long-term credit banks and city banks are also consistent with the "Cowbell"-like effect.
関西大学の論文