4.火災伝播確率マトリックスを用いた火災リスク定量評価モデル(A.被害予測と緊急対応(1),口頭発表,一般論文発表)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
In order to manage the fire risk of a facility, quantification of the risk is essential. In this paper, an approximate calculation method of fire spread of each sector in a facility is proposed. The spread of fire is modeled as a stochastic process and the fire probability of each sector is expressed as the probabilistic products of the Fire Spread Probability Matrixes (FSPMs) and Initial Condition Vector. The effects of fire fighting activities of several states are also included in the calculation. As for the numerical example, the method is applied to a hypothetical factory. Based on the calculation results, together with the value estimation of each sector, the fire risk curve of the factory is evaluated.
地域安全学会の論文