日本における乗用車の廃棄(安藤洋美教授退任記念号)

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This paper analyzes the scrappage of automobiles in Japan. In section I, major studies in automobile scrappage are reviewed briefly, and two problems remaining are pointed. The first problem unsettled is whether macro variables like disposable income can affect automobile scrappage or not, although there is a consensus about the importance of age, automobile price and maintenance/repair cost on scrappage. The second problem is that error correction mechanism between engineering (or theoretical) scrappage and actual scrappage has not been explicitly incorporated into automobiles scrappage models so far. While most of the studies have explained scrappage in terms of engineering scrappage due to aging and deviation of actual economic scrappage from it caused by economic factors, they haven't explicitly incorporated the long-run relationship of identical equality between engineering scrappage and actual scrappage into their models. In section II, to examine the first problem, the determinants of automobile scrappage rate in Japan are analyzed by means of logit estimate following Parks [1977], and it is demonstrated that not only age, automobile price and maintenance/repair cost but macro variables like disposable income also do affect automobile scrappage. This result is consistent with Roos/Szeliski [1939], Walker [1968] and Greenspan/Cohen [1999], but not with Parks [1977] and others. In section III, to rectify the second problem of previous studies, an error correction model of automobile scrappage is presented, and the crucial importance of error correction mechanism for explaining scrappage is demonstrated by fitting this model to time series data of automobile scrappage in Japan.
桃山学院大学の論文

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滝田和夫
桃山学院大学経済学部

日本における乗用車の廃棄(安藤洋美教授退任記念号)

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