果実の価格形成要因について(第2報) : 取扱量による影響

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The purpose of this study was to prepare forecasts of fruit prices. We examined various factors affecting fruit prices using the "Annual Report of Farm Produce for the Tokyo Wholesale Market" (1950-2000 edition). We then prepared a report examining the relationship between the total volume of fruit transactions and their price fluctuations. 1. The proportion of fruits for which the peak production period and the period of lowest prices (both calculated on a monthly basis) coincided was 6.7% in both 1950 and 2000. The proportion of fruits for which the peak production period and the period of lowest prices differed by a one-month interval was 30.0% in 1950 and 20.0% in 2000. 2. The total number of items decreased every ten years from 1950 to 2000. The figures are negatively-correlated in recent years. 3. With regard to the peak production period for the years spanning 1960-2000, the ratio of delay over the period of lowest prices represented 43.3-63.3%, while the ratio ahead represented 13.3-33.3%. Vegetable prices show the same trend. 4. The number of imports and importing countries increased over the period 1950 to 2000. There was a significantly larger increase in the number of importing countries as compared with the increase in the number of imported items. 5. There are many items with a consistently high or low proportion of imports relative to the total volume of fruits transacted. Fruit prices are slightly affected by their peak production periods, but are more evidently affected by the supply/demand balance resulting from imports, as well as government policies.
文教大学女子短期大学部の論文

果実の価格形成要因について(第2報) : 取扱量による影響

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