原油価格はなぜ高いのか?そして天然ガスは?(<特集>エネルギー価格形成のメカニズム〜最新動向と今後の展望〜)

概要

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On October 19, the price of crude oil hit a record level of $90.07 a barrel. Market fundamentals, however, do not support this price level, which was pushed up by a large inflow of fund money to the commodity futures market through various kinds of concerns such as geopolitical events, interest rate reductions, and decline of the dollar. Sooner or later, the price will come down to a level, which reflects the actual demand-supply balance. Regarding the longer term oil market situations such as 2008-2010, since there is diversification of perspectives among organizations and market participants, we should be cautious and often update our views, taking revised forecasts into account. The natural gas price is now below $10 per mmBtu with lukewarm demand and relatively abundant supply. The price will strengthen seasonally, however, in the coming months, but near-record storage in the US may add downward pressure, subject to winter temperatures.
一般社団法人日本エネルギー学会の論文
2007-12-20