ASEAN, China, and India: Are they more Competitive or Complementary to each other?

概要

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The rise of China and India as an industrial power is now regarded as an opportunity rather than as a threat for ASEAN. The paper shows that whether this view is consistent with the underlying economic force or not depends on the country in question. With respect to a FTA between ASEAN and China, both Singapore and Malaysia seem to gain both through inter- and intra-industry specialization. Thailand appears to gain significantly as well through intra-industry specialization vis-à-vis China. Indonesia and the Philippines may not gain much through the formation of FTA unless substantial efforts are made in order to promote their industrial development. The promotion of economic cooperation between ASEAN and India, on the other hand, may make sense in the long run, but its immediate impact on both sides still seems to be limited. First, the success of India continues to depend on the services sector. Second, there is still very little intra-industry specialization between ASEAN and India. The announcement of the formation of a FTA between India and ASEAN may make economic sense in the long run, but substantial benefits may not be expected at least in the short run yet.
同志社大学の論文