内生的変動と期待の役割 : 実物景気循環モデルと期待形成(経済の進化と経済学,共同研究)
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In this paper, we first of all consider endogenous growth and self organization by reexamining the main stream models of growth theory from the viewpoint of the economics of complexity. For this purpose, we classified the theoretical characteristics of both real business cycle theory and Keynesian monetary growth theory as they relate to endogenous economic growth theory according to neoclassical growth theories, which clarified the following points relating to the characteristics of Keynesian monetary growth theory: (1) it is a neoclassical Tobin monetary growth model; (2) in the Solow-type real growth model, financial assets are introduced and inflation is created by monetary economic disequilibrium; and (3) interaction with expectations for inflation are taken into consideration. Expansion of the Solow-type model is characterized by the operation of Say's law in the financial market being linked with inflation and expectations for inflation when currency is regarded as assets in the same way as real assets. Secondly, we classify macro-dynamic models according to the capital accumulation methods described in the Keynesian monetary growth model and neoclassical growth theories. We then examine two simple market models, the Keynesian AS-AD growth model, in light of this classification. In these models, there are two independent markets incorporating dynamics for adjustment processes, and these adjustment processes form two independent circles. These two circles are linked by an expected interest rate acting as an interdependent parameter, and as a whole, these are thought to form one large circle. Furthermore, we explain the convergence of systems that utilize Cavallaro's simple IS=LM dynamic model or cyclic structures, and demonstrate the relationship between the formation of expectation by entrepreneurs as investors and the speed of adjustment in dynamic systems. With respect to the formation of expectations, which is related to the analysis of the stability of the dynamic model, we introduce information externality and strategies for sharing information into expectation formation, and describe the convergence to a dominant group with economic agents in which certain expectations form. Finally, we explore the possibility that even if, in the early stages of a given economics, expectation formation lacks homogeneity, one particular expectation formation will come to dominate if sufficient meetings take place, and homogeneous expectations will gradually converge into a formation.
- 2001-03-25
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