社会経済開発と死亡力(mortality)の決定要因について : 第2次世界大戦後の昭和期を中心として(人口急増都市と財源問題,共同研究)

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Mortality in our country has shown a consistent and steady decline since the Meiji era, apart from extraordinary periods such as wartimes. However, the socioeconomic determinants bringing about the decline in mortality were not made clear until the present day. It may be said that this was caused mainly because population studies in our country have centered around formal demographic research. Nonetheless, the popular theory that credits economic growth as having caused the mortality decline has been widely accepted. Yet there are many phenomena which cannot be explained by such a theory. A chief example is the dramatic drop in mortality in the ten years following the Second World War; this was a time when Japanese industry was in a state of complete ruin, and the standard of living was low. This makes it hard to believe economic factors contributed to the decline in mortality. Can the popular view really be true? The main purpose of this article lies in clarifying such questions surrounding the drop in mortality in Japan. There is also another purpose behind this article, which is to find clues to use when examining the decline in mortality in developing countries. At present, there are three conflicting theories emerging from research into mortality decline in developing countries. The main factor for the drop in mortality is said to be respectively in each theory, economic development (economy emphasis theory), medical treatment (medical treatment emphasis theory) or a combination of both (midway theory). This divergence of opinion has not yet been resolved. Research fell into such confusion because the respective groups sought to analyse the socioeconomic determinant, while totally disregarding socioeconomic development stages in those countries. When seeking to analyse the mortality decline, taking the socioeconomic development stages into consideration, the post Second World War period in Japan provides an appropriate example. This is because in only a 40 year period the socioeconomic structure of Japan changed dramatically from the desperate confusion and reconstruction of the immediate post-war days, to remarkable prosperity during high economic growth, and then to mature and stable economic growth after the Oil Crises. If the immediate post-war conditions correspond to the today's developing countries, Japan passed through the development path in 40 years, from the low development stage to the high development stage. Now, when analysing mortality decline in Japan from a socioeconomic aspect, the research findings likely to be of help are the three theories mentioned previously. Yet it is virtually impossible to apply these theories arbitrarily, since this increases the likelihood of incorrect conclusion being drawn. Therefore at the first stage of our research, this problem needs to be solved. The key to solving this problem lies in the concept of "cultural diffusion" of K. Davis, which can be summarised as follows. Culture spreads from a highly developed country to less developed ones. This diffusion does not take place at an uniform rate, but differs according to the nature of the culture being transmitted. For example, medical skills and medicines can be quickly introduced, while cultural elements essential to economic development are not so swiftly spread. This obviously happens because there is a desire throughout the world to avoid disease and enjoy a longevity. Following this concept, the three theories can be combined, with consistency maintained. Namely, the socioeconomic determinant in mortality changes as the level of the national economy and the social system develop, from medical factors, to medical and economic factors, and then to economic factors. This will be called the combined hypothesis. If this combined hypothesis is correct, the critical determinant in mortality in our country should have changed in the order described above. When seeking to prove such a hypothesis, generally multiple-regression analysis is used. However, since the indirect effect that one variable has on another cannot be measured by this method, it is unsuitable for an analysis like the present one. Therefore for this article, analysis on mortality was carried out by using the Simon-Blalock Method, and Path Analysis. The variables used for the analysis were standard of living: SOL, education standards: ED, medical standards: MC, living environment: SILC, and mortality: M. From the Path Diagram obtained from employing such methods, it can be understood that mortality in our country declined in the unsettled reconstruction days of the postwar period due to medical factors, while economic factors operated in the stable economic growth phase. In the time between these two periods, both factors were involved. That is to say, the socioeconomic determinant in mortality changed as the level of the national economy and the social system developed, from medical factors, to medical and economic factors, to economic factors. The appropriateness of the combined hypothesis has been proved. The results of this analysis provide important reference material for investigating mortality in developing countries. As previously mentioned, there are three conflicting theories as to the determinant in mortality in developing countries. The reason for this is that analysis was carried out without taking into account the socioeconomic development stages. If this is taken into consideration, by applying the combined hypothesis, this state of confusion should be resolved. In the future it will be necessary to research mortality in developing countries from such a viewpoint.
日本大学の論文
1985-03-20

著者

大塚友美
日本大学経済学部

社会経済開発と死亡力(mortality)の決定要因について : 第2次世界大戦後の昭和期を中心として(人口急増都市と財源問題,共同研究)

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