SHIFTING PATTERNS OF ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION OF IMPORTS : SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A BILATERAL TRADE LINKAGE MODEL

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概要

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• This paper is based on an empirical examination of the shifting patterns of the elasticities of substitution of imports from different trading partners for an importing country, when applied to a world trade linkage model. Among various trade linkage models that have been developed, that by Hickman and Lau (1973), which seems to be most theoretically satisfying, provides an estimate of a constant elasticity of substitution. However, the notion of constant elasticities of substitution, as given by Hickman and Lau, is too restrictive and awkward for an analysis of both differential elasticities among different combinations of trade partners and their shifting patterns over a certain time period. Specifically, we first approximate the cost-minimizing import price index for an importing country into a translog function and derive a multi-equation import share demand system based on recent developments of theory. We estimate this new trade linkage model by the SUR method using the data covering the period 1965-81 for Japan, North America, Western Europe, Oceania, other Asian countries, the Middle East and the rest of the world for four different goods and also for total goods. We conduct some simulation exercises of the predictive ability of the model using some additional observations for later years. Finally, we examine some implications of the results of the shifting patterns of the elasticities of substitution of imports for some selected countries (or regions) and goods. This is an interim report of our final goal of analyzing similar shifting patterns of the elasticities of substitution of imports over a longer time period including the 1990s, that research program being still in progress. The elasticity figures capture both the degrees of trade liberalization and competitiveness and therefore should provide us with some interesting information for the development of world trade.

• 神戸大学の論文

著者

• Kuramoto Mikio

  Kobe City University Of Foreign Studies

• TOYODA TOSHIHISA

  Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University

• Toyoda Toshihisa

  Graduate School Of International Cooperation Studies Kobe University

関連論文

• SHIFTING PATTERNS OF ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION OF IMPORTS : SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A BILATERAL TRADE LINKAGE MODEL

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